Would You Fold A-K Here? 300BB Deep Facing a Turn Squeeze
Would You Fold A-K Here? 300BB Deep Facing a Turn Squeeze
I played a hand tonight that I still can't stop thinking about. Top pair, top kicker, 300 big blinds deep, and I ended up folding it on the turn. Maybe that was disciplined. Maybe I got bluffed off the best hand. I want you to try to imagine this hand, make your own decision, and then tell me what you'd do.
The Setup
It's late at night, about seven hours into the session. I'm in the hijack with 300 big blinds, and there are two villains behind me who matter here. In the cutoff is Trapper Tom, an old man coffee with 250 big blinds who takes weird lines and loves to trap. I've seen him flat preflop with Ace King, Kings, and occasionally even Aces. Kings and Queens are regularly part of his flatting range.
On the button is Steady Eddie with 225 big blinds. He's a capable regular, honestly a very good player, and he isn't someone I want to tangle with in a big pot without a strong reason.
Preflop
I wake up with the Ace of Clubs and King of Spades and open to 7.5 big blinds, which is a pretty standard size in this game, especially this deep. Trapper Tom flats. Steady Eddie flats. The blinds fold, and we go three ways. I'm already not loving the spot, because a three way pot against a trapper and a strong reg makes top pair a lot less comfortable than it sounds.
The Flop: King of Clubs, Jack of Hearts, Queen of Spades
There are almost 24 big blinds in the pot, and I flop top pair, top kicker with a gutshot to the nut straight. It sounds great, but this board connects hard with the ranges that flat preflop. Two pair, sets, and made straights like Ace Ten are all in play.
I go small, 7.5 big blinds. I want to keep weaker value hands like Ace Jack, Ace Queen, and pocket Tens in the pot, and I don't want to bloat it against two tough villains who could already have me beat. Both of them call. Now the pot is 46.3 big blinds.
The Turn: Nine of Clubs
This is probably one of the worst cards in the entire deck for my hand. Any Ten now makes a straight, and the calling ranges from both villains are full of hands that just got there or were already ahead.
I go for another small bet of 12.5 big blinds. Trapper Tom calls, which is a little concerning on its own. Then Steady Eddie raises to 37.5 big blinds, squeezing both of us.
Why that sizing matters
To me, that size screams value. But it's also a great bluffing size in this exact spot. If I wanted to bluff here, that's the size I'd pick, because it's cheap, it's easy to fold if you get raised, and it works so often against every non nutted hand. Realistically, the only hands that want to continue against it are strong made hands and straight draws.
The price looks tempting on paper. I'd be calling 25 more big blinds into a pot of roughly 109, which means I need to be good somewhere around 19% of the time. The problem is that Trapper Tom is still behind me and could come back over the top, and I didn't think Steady Eddie was creative enough to find this bluff often against me and an old man coffee in the same pot. He does have bluffs in his range, but in this spot I didn't think he'd have enough of them.
So I let it go. Trapper Tom folded, and Steady Eddie scooped the pot.
So, Did I Get Bluffed?
Steady Eddie showed his hand, and I'm going to reveal it in the follow-up video, along with a full breakdown of what I could have done better, where I may have messed this hand up, and what I think the best line was on every street. Before you see that, I want your honest answer. Is this a fold, a call, or a spot to shove?
Come tell me what you'd do in my free Discord, where I'm discussing this hand right now with viewers, clients, and course members.
How I Got This Hand Out of My Head
After the hand, I wasn't sure I'd taken the most profitable line, and that kind of doubt can follow you for the rest of a session. So I walked away from the table and plugged the hand into my Vinton Poker AI Coach. It's trained on my strategy, my style, my book, and my course, so I trust the feedback. About five minutes later I sat back down with a clear head and the hand was behind me.
It's completely free, and you can use it between hands or after every session.
Try the Vinton Poker Coaching AI
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